聊一聊交易市场与科技行业的人群、投机者与战略家
两个行业的人群都有着一个共性：一旦出现一个光芒，人群就会像萤火虫一样疯狂涌去，在变换莫测的时代里，比如说当下的大变局之下，人群所做的是近乎莱维运动；当光芒逐渐暗淡之时人群就会陷入布朗运动，他们的这一特性进而催生了两大获利人群：投机者与战略家。
投机者的行为模式非常简单，他们实时监测时代的动向、人群的抉择，然后在人群出现共识初期入场，乘着趋势前行，获取丰厚利润。从较为泛化的角度来说，绝大多数的普通交易者与科技行业的工作者都是投机者。比如说当大部分交易者意识到特斯拉的价格在稳定上升的时候，就会考虑去买入，因为他们看到了一个趋势的存在；当大部分程序员意识到人工智能技术能带来更好的工作的时候，他们就会花费更多的资金和精力去投入到这方面的技术里面去学习。但要注意的是，这类跟风型投机者获取的永远是有限的边际效益，在他们中间，存在着一场关于速度的竞赛，无论是高频交易者还是能够快速提升自身开发水平的科技工作者，他们的利润空间的大小很大程度上取决于能否处在其他投机者的头部。于是在交易的世界里现在主导市场的十大交易机构全都是量化交易机构，他们具备更快的订单信息处理、决断速度，因而虽然同样是投机者，但他们却获取了近乎于入门级战略家水平的利润，在早期的时候他们的代表人物有李佛摩尔，如今则是以西蒙斯为代表的一群数学家。在科技行业里面这类投机者可以理解为顶级高校多学位的天才型工作者，他们把自己的天赋和努力作为进入头部科技企业的敲门砖，为他们提供优质的劳动力并获得常人难以企及的高额回报；但从工作性质来说他们仍然属于头部投机者，因为他们并没有像比尔盖茨这样开创一个时代，而是参与到这个时代已经开启的方向。这里之所以要特别点明的是，他们中有不少人是希望成为开拓一个时代的战略家，但大多数都没有成功，李飞飞、吴恩达就是这类人中的佼佼者，他们没有开创人工智能，却在人工智能时代即将崛起的初期以其非凡的天赋投入到其中推动着这一进程的快速进步与发展。战略家与投机者的本质区别会在下面细致论述，但总的来说，杰出的投机者与战略家一样依然获得我最崇高的敬意。
战略家拥有两个非常显著的特性：第一个是他们承认当前所存在的强大趋势，但却高瞻远瞩地看到另外一个可能产生的更加强劲的势能，并且去布局与推动他们，也就是说他们在早期与投机者有着截然不同的地方：他们不是追随人群已经开启的势头，而是在进行系统性地布局与建设一个还未存在的趋势，换言之他们是造势者。第二个是他们所面临的可供布局、决策的一切信息都是未知的，他们在一个全新的领域里面开山劈林，在人类文明知识的蛮荒之地构建着未来的恢宏场景，其意志力与开阔的眼界将会以令人匪夷所思的时空间跨度纵横数百年甚至千年之久，其规划的宏大场景更是超越了绝大多数人的想象力上限。他们中大家比较熟知的在交易的世界里一个是量子基金的索罗斯，他把金融当做一种政治的外沿，利用其社会学与情报学的知识去构建着符合他诉求的政治生态，同时利用构建的生态环境来获得丰厚的利润。第二个是罗杰斯，他以美国1917年的发展为蓝本，对中国未来百年发展进行了一次长远的规划，将全部资金撤出美国并在中国深度布局了19年，推动着一个即将到来的百年牛市。这类人的一大特征是，他们布局初期绝大多数的人群依然在美股里面追涨杀跌，期盼着当时世界上交易规模最大的市场给予他们足够的流动性回报，没有人愿意把眼光投注在他们认知的荒蛮之地。在科技领域的第一个代表人物是冯布劳恩，他不仅发明了火箭，还把它的水平直接推进到直到2020年53年后的今天依然没法被超越的超重型火箭，并且从研发到发射的所有历史中无一失败。他与投机者最大的区别是他不仅仅发明了火箭技术与设计了所有细节，而且规划了一整个航天供应链高达20多万个中小企业的上下游产业框架与细节，他是真正地在科学的未知世界里开拓出了一座摩天大楼耸立的恢弘城市，并且领先了当时的时代足足有60余年。第二个代表人物是钱学森，他不仅仅是美国高超音速先进推进飞行器的领头人，而且在1949年12月1日首次提出一个实用化的火箭跨国旅行设计方案，并且在1950年推动美国登月计划，再后来回到中国在当时工业化都没完成的情况下开创并且规划了整个中国的先进航空体系，今天美国之所以能够登月以及中国的航天水平能进入国际先进行列都离不开他，他被航空界里面尊崇为三个顶级的人类天才之一——冯卡门、冯布劳恩与钱学森。而今天SpaceX的会议室专门命名为钱学森会议室也是对他的一个致敬。
而此时此刻，将会成为人类文明一个万紫千红的航天纪元的开端。在未来我们会遇见越来越多的顶级投机者与战略家的出现。相信他们会让我们这个人类文明变得更加辉煌。共勉。
2020年8月23日16:46:04
A few words about the crowds, speculators, and strategists.
The crowds of the two industries have one thing in common: once there is a light, the crowd will swarm like fireflies. In an unpredictable era, such as the current world, what the crowd does is almost move like the Levi Movement; when the light gradually dims, the crowd will fall into the Brownian movement, complete chaos and can be quantified with a bell shape statistic model, and these characteristics of them have given birth to two profitable groups: speculators and strategists.
The behavioral pattern of speculators is very simple. They monitor the trends of the times and the choices of the crowd in real-time, and then enter the market at the beginning of the consensus of the crowd, ride the trend and make huge profits. From a more generalized perspective, the vast majority of ordinary traders and workers in the technology industry are speculators. For example, when most traders realize that Tesla's price is rising steadily, they will consider buying because they see a trend; when most programmers realize that artificial intelligence technology can generate more profit for them when they work well, they will spend more money and energy to invest to learn about it. But it should be noted that this kind of follow-up speculators can always obtain limited marginal benefits. Among them, there is a race for speed, whether it is high-frequency traders or technological work that can quickly improve their own development level. The size of their profit margins depends largely on whether they can be in the head of other speculators. Therefore, in the world of trading, the top ten trading institutions that currently dominate the market are all quantitative trading institutions. They have faster order of information processing and execution speed. Therefore, although they are also speculators, they have acquired the same profit as the entry-level strategists. In the early days, they were represented by Livermore, but now they are a group of mathematicians represented by Simmons. In the technology industry, such speculators can be understood as talented workers with multiple degrees in top universities. They use their talents and efforts as the stepping stone to enter the top technology companies, provide them with high-quality labor, and obtain tremendous profit that ordinary people can’t match. But in terms of the nature of their work, they are still speculators, because they did not create an era as Bill Gates did, instead, they participated in the direction that already created. The reason why it is important to point out here is that many of them hope to become strategists who can create an era, but most of them have not succeeded. Feifei Li and Andrew NG are the best in this category. They did not create artificial intelligence. However, in the early stage of the upcoming rise of the artificial intelligence era, they contributed extraordinary talents that promoted the rapid progress and development of artificial intelligence. The essential difference between strategists and speculators will be discussed in detail below. In general, both outstanding speculators and strategists receive my highest respect.
Strategists have two very significant characteristics: The first is that they recognize the current strong trends, but look forward to seeing the other stronger potential trend that may be generated, and to enhance and promote them. In the early phases, what they did are quite different from speculators: they are not following the momentum that the crowd has started, but are systematically design and building a trend that does not exist yet, in other words, they are the founder of an era. Secondly, all the information they are facing for decision-making is unknown. They are constructing a magnificent future scene in the wildland of human civilization knowledge from scratch. They have extremely strong willpower and a broad horizon. Their vision span hundreds or even thousands of years in an incredible time and space, and the grand scene of its planning exceeds the upper limit of the imagination of most people. Among them, the most familiar one in the world of trading is Soros of Quantum Fund. He regards finance as a kind of political extended realm and uses his knowledge of sociology and information science to construct a political ecology that meets his demands. And that constructed ecological environment will generate huge profits for him. The second example is Rogers. He took the development of the United States in 1917 as a blueprint and made a long-term plan for China's future development in the 21st century. He invested almost all his money in China in the past 19 years, promoting an upcoming hundred-year long bull market. A major feature of this type of people is that they went out and built a whole new world while the vast majority of the people in the early stages of their layout are still chasing the rise and fall in the U.S. stock market, hoping that the world's largest trading market at that time will give them enough liquidity returns and no one wants to look at the unknown world. The first representative in the field of science and technology was Von Braun. He not only invented the rocket but also developed its advanced level to the super-heavy rocket that still cannot be surpassed until 53 years later in 2020. Saturn-V maintained the most successful record in the rocket history, there was never been failed. The biggest difference between him and speculators is that he not only invented rocket technology and designed all the details, but also planned an entire aerospace supply chain with up to 200,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in the upstream and downstream industry framework and details. He built a magnificent city with tall skyscrapers opened up in the unknown world in the science world, and it was ahead of the time by more than 60 years. The second representative is Hsue-Shen Tsien. He is not only the leader of American hypersonic advanced propulsion vehicles, but also put forward a practical rocket transnational travel design plan for the first time on December 1, 1949, and promoted the American moon landing in 1950. After he went to China later, he created and built the entire advanced aviation system of China without the completion of industrialization at that time. The United States is able to land on the moon and China's aerospace level can enter the international advanced ranks because of him. He is revered as one of the three top human geniuses in the aviation industry-Von Carmen, Von Braun, and Hsue-Shen Tsien. Today, SpaceX’s meeting room is named Hsue-Shen Tsien as a tribute to him.
At this moment, it will be the beginning of a cosmopolitan aerospace era in human civilization. In the future, we will meet more and more top speculators and strategists. I believe they will make our human civilization more glorious. Long live humanity.
August 23, 2020 16:46:04